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Kobayashi, Takuya; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Kamidaira, Yuki
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO
, 62(11), p.635 - 639, 2020/11
It is important to predict the dispersion of radioactive materials released into the ocean due to nuclear accidents in the surrounding ocean of the east Asian countries. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency developed a Short-Term Emergency Assessment system of Marine Environmental Radioactivity (STEAMER) based on an oceanic dispersion model. STEAMER quickly predicts the oceanic dispersion of radioactive materials in the surrounding ocean of the east Asian countries using the online prediction data of oceanic condition. We validated the predictability of the oceanic dispersion and demonstrated the improvement of the predictability using an ensemble prediction method. Moreover, we developed a high resolution model in the coastal region using a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS).
Kawamura, Hideyuki; Kamidaira, Yuki; Kobayashi, Takuya
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(4), p.472 - 485, 2020/04
Times Cited Count：3 Percentile：31.36(Nuclear Science & Technology)The Japan Atomic Energy Agency developed a Short-Term Emergency Assessment system of the Marine Environmental Radioactivity (STEAMER) to predict the oceanic dispersion of radionuclides in the ocean around Japan. The purpose of this study is to validate the predictability of STEAMER using oceanographic forecast and reanalysis data, which were saved for past several years. Results of oceanic dispersion simulations that are driven by oceanographic reanalysis data are assumed to be true solutions. Oceanic dispersion simulations are conducted for Cs-137 released hypothetically from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The predictability of STEAMER is quantitatively examined for the length of the forecast period. Ensemble forecast simulations are also conducted to successfully improve the predictability of STEAMER.
